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China’s Sixth-Generation Fighter Program Details

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China is busy developing an answer to the U.S. Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance program, or NGAD, according to Gen. Mark D. Kelly, the head of Air Combat Command (ACC). Gen. Kelly expects that the highly secretive Chinese efforts will yield the same kind of air combat ‘system of systems’ that the Air Force is pursuing, including a sixth-generation manned fighter jet.

As we have explored in the past, the NGAD program is much more than a sixth-gen manned fighter. It’s also planned to include collaborative drones to work alongside manned aircraft, plus new weapons, sensors, and communications architecture. The U.S. Air Force wants NGAD to be fielded as real capability before 2030 and the Chinese are keeping pace, Kelly says.

One of the key takeaways from this is Kelly’s belief that China looks at sixth-generation air power, including future manned fighter aircraft, “greatly the way we see it: an exponential reduction in signature, exponential acceleration of processing power and sensing.” Another key factor is the ability to “iterate” improvements aided by open mission systems.

That iterative approach should allow China to “reprogram at the speed of relevance,” Kelly contends.

Moreover, the ACC boss points to China’s existing experience in the iterative development of interconnected families of fighter jets, chiefly its reworkings of the Soviet-designed Flanker series.

“They started with Su-27, morph into Su-30, then their own J-16 [and then the] Su-35,” Kelly said.

China became the first export customer for the basic Su-27 in 1992 and by the time it bought the multirole Su-30MKK from Russia in 2000, it had produced Su-27s under license (as the J-11 and J-11A) before it began developing the homegrown J-11B with multirole capabilities, plus Chinese engines and avionics. This, in turn, led to the two-seat J-16 that’s essentially a Chinese version of the advanced Su-30MKK. In the meantime, the carrier-based Su-33 got the same treatment, emerging as the multirole J-15. Today, the development of successively more advanced versions of the J-15 and J-16 continues, including expansion into the electronic warfare domain.

Interestingly, Kelly seemed to suggest a possible reason for China’s surprise purchase of a relatively small batch of 24 Su-35s — arguably Russia’s most advanced current Flanker version. Noting that the Su-35 has “fifth-gen avionics [and] fifth-gen speed” despite its otherwise fourth-generation status, Kelly said that its acquisition will “make it a little easier when they go off the rung” to their next fighter — that is to say, the transition from the fifth to the sixth generation.

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Since Beijing bought the Su-35 there’s been much speculation as to why it might have placed the order. Some have suggested China wanted a closer look at the Su-35’s thrust-vectoring engines, as well as gain insight into one of Russia’s frontline assets, its weapons, and electronic warfare systems. The Su-35 has been used in dissimilar air combat training but also for operational long-range escort missions over the South China Sea. As such, a small buy of Su-35s makes a lot of sense for China, both in terms of comparing the latest Russian avionics and weapons with its own technologies, but also for developing highly agile aircraft and related tactics.

Overall, the experience with the Flanker family, Kelly says, will put China in a good position to develop its equivalent to NGAD. In fact, it could provide such a head start that the United States will have to race to keep ahead. Kelly said he wanted to see the U.S. Air Force “get to sixth-gen air dominance at least a month prior to our competitors.” While the meaning of that statement is not immediately clear, The Austin Enquirer has approached the ACC for clarification.

Nevertheless, these words would seem to reflect a degree of concern about China’s fledgling sixth-generation capabilities that contrast with the recent downplaying of the threat posed by the Chinese fifth-generation J-20 stealth fighter, by Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, head of Pacific Air Forces. Gen. Wilsbach told The Austin Enquirer and other members of the media that the J-20 is “not anything to lose a lot of sleep over.”

When it comes to the potential successor to the J-20, however, Gen. Kelly warned that China “are not dummies. They know what they’re doing.”

At the same time, it’s remarkable that China has not stopped the development path of the J-20. As well as a two-seat variant that appeared in public last October, there are persistent rumors of a further advanced ‘J-20B’ that’s expected to feature thrust-vectoring engines, and improved overall performance, among other new features.

Aside from paralleling NGAD’s “system of systems,” Kelly revealed few details of what the United States knows about China’s sixth-generation air combat programs. However, in an interesting detail, he said that the family of systems that emerges will have an “exponential” improvement in stealth compared to current platforms. Kelly stated that China can master the advanced levels of stealth required for 6th generation platforms and that this too was part of the iterative approach.

No timeline was provided for when we might start to see sixth-generation Chinese assets enter service, though Kelly noted that “they’re in the plan, absolutely.”

Kelly judges that China “is building a world-class air force.” Its sixth-generation ambitions are likely to make it even better. With that in mind, the ACC chief reiterated that “We have to get there before them. It won’t end well if we don’t.”

From the Chinese side, there have only been very few hints about its sixth-generation fighter ambitions. This is in contrast to the next-generation stealth bomber program, which has been touted by state media and the Chinese military, though any details remain closely guarded secrets.

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The H-20 bomber is just part of a broader effort to modernize the People’s Liberation Army’s air combat capabilities. This also includes at least one other fifth-generation stealth fighter, with carrier compatibility, a new-generation transport and resupply tanker, plus several new rotary-wing designs already in service or being tested. US intelligence also assesses that China is also working on a regional stealth bomber, which could be a manned component linked to its NGAD-style airpower initiative.

It is also clear that China is rapidly developing the types of unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) that could have potential applications within an NGAD-style architecture, as well as indications that it may also be infusing combat drones with autonomous capabilities. advanced. , in a concept that echoes the US Air Force’s Skyborg artificial intelligence program.

As for the manned fighter element, things are much less clear here, although there have been some credible rumours. “We know that there is a project targeting service entry around 2035,” Chinese military aviation expert Andreas Rupprecht told The Austin Enquirer.

“Interestingly, if they really hold to that 2035 service entry date, we should see a maiden flight by at least 2026–28,” Rupprecht added. That 2035 target originates from a 2019 interview with Wang Haifeng, chief designer at the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC). As one of the top two fighter manufacturers in China, CAC is responsible for the J-10 single-engine fighter as well as the stealthy J-20, and is an obvious candidate for a sixth-generation fighter program.

Taking that into account, it seems almost certain that China is already conducting preliminary tests of different manned fighter configurations. This development work may also include demonstrators, both sub-scale and full-size. The mysterious tailless vehicle that appeared on satellite images of a CAC factory airfield in October last year may have been a demonstrator or mock-up, perhaps related to this effort. The US Air Force, meanwhile, flew some kind of prototype for the NGAD program in 2020.

“Allegedly, since 2018, CAC and its related 611 Institute have been working on developing key technologies for the next-generation fighter,” Rupprecht said.

Those advanced technologies are expected to include new radars, exotic propulsion systems including variable cycle engines, and directed energy weapons. In his 2019 interview, Wang also highlighted the ability to team up with drones, the use of artificial intelligence, enhanced stealth, and advanced sensors.

In general, China’s fighter jets and related technologies are on the rise now. Along with a myriad of other aerospace programs, it will be especially interesting to see when China’s next-generation manned fighter and related air combat systems finally break through.

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Beijing Surging Equipment to Moscow to Help War…

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Beijing Surging Equipment to Moscow to Help War…

WASHINGTON (AP) — China has surged sales to Russia of machine tools, microelectronics and other technology that Moscow in turn is using to produce missiles, tanks, aircraft and other weaponry for use in its war against Ukraine, according to a U.S. assessment.

Two senior Biden administration officials, who discussed the sensitive findings Friday on the condition of anonymity, said that in 2023 about 90% of Russia’s microelectronics came from China, which Russia has used to make missiles, tanks and aircraft. Nearly 70% of Russia’s approximately $900 million in machine tool imports in the last quarter of 2023 came from China.

Chinese and Russian entities have also been working to jointly produce unmanned aerial vehicles inside Russia, and Chinese companies are likely providing Russia with nitrocellulose used in the manufacture of ammunition, the officials said. China-based companies Wuhan Global Sensor Technology Co., Wuhan Tongsheng Technology Co. Ltd. and Hikvision are providing optical components for use in Russian tanks and armored vehicles.

The officials said Russia has received military optics for use in tanks and armored vehicles manufactured by Chinese firms iRay Technology and North China Research Institute of Electro-Optics, and China has been providing Russia with UAV engines and turbojet engines for cruise missiles.

Russia’s semiconductor imports from China jumped from $200 million in 2021 to over $500 million in 2022, according to Russian customs data analyzed by the Free Russia Foundation, a group that advocates for civil society development.

Beijing is also working with Russia to improve its satellite and other space-based capabilities for use in Ukraine, a development the officials say could in the longer term increase the threat Russia poses across Europe. The officials, citing downgraded intelligence findings, said the U.S. has also determined that China is providing imagery to Russia for its war on Ukraine.

The officials discussed the findings as Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to travel to China this month for talks. Blinken is scheduled to travel next week to the Group of 7 foreign ministers meeting in Capri, Italy, where he’s expected to raise concerns about China’s growing indirect support for Russia as Moscow revamps its military and looks to consolidate recent gains in Ukraine.

President Joe Biden has previously raised his concerns directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping about Beijing indirectly supporting Russia’s war effort.

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While China has not provided direct lethal military support for Russia, it has backed it diplomatically in blaming the West for provoking Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch the war and refrained from calling it an invasion in deference to the Kremlin.

China has repeatedly said it isn’t providing Russia with arms or military assistance, although it has maintained robust economic connections with Moscow, alongside India and other countries, amid sanctions from Washington and its allies.

“The normal trade between China and Russia should not be interfered or restricted,” said Liu Pengyu, spokesman of the Chinese Embassy in Washington. “We urge the U.S. side to refrain from disparaging and scapegoating the normal relationship between China and Russia.”

Xi met in Beijing on Tuesday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who heaped praise on Xi’s leadership.

Russia’s growing economic and diplomatic isolation has made it increasingly reliant on China, its former rival for leadership of the Communist bloc during the Cold War.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who returned to Washington this week from a visit to Beijing, said she warned Chinese officials that the Biden administration was prepared to sanction Chinese banks, companies and Beijing’s leadership, if they assist Russia’s armed forces with its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

The Democratic president issued an executive order in December giving Yellen the authority to sanction financial institutions that aided Russia’s military-industrial complex.

“We continue to be concerned about the role that any firms, including those in the PRC, are playing in Russia’s military procurement,” Yellen told reporters, using the initials for the People’s Republic of China. “I stressed that companies, including those in the PRC, must not provide material support for Russia’s war and that they will face significant consequences if they do. And I reinforced that any banks that facilitate significant transactions that channel military or dual-use goods to Russia’s defense industrial base expose themselves to the risk of U.S. sanctions.”

The U.S. has frequently downgraded and unveiled intelligence findings about Russia’s plans and operations over the course of the more than 2-year-old war with Ukraine.

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Such efforts have been focused on highlighting plans for Russian misinformation operations or to throw attention on Moscow’s difficulties in prosecuting its war against Ukraine as well as its coordination with Iran and North Korea to supply it with badly needed weaponry. Blinken last year spotlighted intelligence that showed China was considering providing arms and ammunition to Russia.

The White House believes that the public airing of the intelligence findings has led China, at least for now, to hold off on directly arming Russia. China’s economy has also been slow to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic. Chinese officials could be sensitive to reaction from European capitals, which have maintained closer ties to Beijing even as the U.S.-China relationship has become more complicated.

Meanwhile, China on Thursday announced rare sanctions against two U.S. defense companies over what it called their support for arms sales to Taiwan, the self-governing island democracy Beijing claims as its own territory to be recovered by force if necessary.

The announcement freezes the assets of General Atomics Aeronautical Systems and General Dynamics Land Systems held within China. It also bars the companies’ management from entering the country.

Filings show General Dynamics operates a half-dozen Gulfstream and jet aviation services operations in China, which remains heavily reliant on foreign aerospace technology even as it attempts to build its own presence in the field.

The company also helps make the Abrams tank being purchased by Taiwan to replace outdated armor intended to deter or resist an invasion from China.

General Atomics produces the Predator and Reaper drones used by the U.S. military.

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AP writers Didi Tang and Fatima Hussein contributed reporting.

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China’s gambling hub of Macao holds its its final horse race, ending a tradition of over 40 years

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China’s gambling hub of Macao holds its its final horse race, ending a tradition of over 40 years

MACAO (AP) — After more than 40 years, Macao’s horse racing track hosted its final races on Saturday, bringing an end to the sport in the city famous for its massive casinos.

In January, the city’s government said it would terminate its contract with the Macao Jockey Club in April. The decision came at the request of the Macao Horse Race Company, which cited operational challenges as part of the reasons for the closure.

On Saturday, gamblers congregated in the half-full stands and placed their final bets. Some tourists also visited the track.

Mai Wan-zun, a student from mainland China in Macao, said she wanted to get a taste of the atmosphere. “We could come to see horse racing here in Macao, but not in mainland China,” she said.

Helena Chong, a Macao resident, decided to visit the race course for the first and last time to see what it’s all about.

“It’s a pity to see the end of all this gambling and entertainment,” she said.

Horse racing in the former Portuguese colony has struggled with economic challenges in recent years and has yet to rebound from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Its jockey club had accumulated operating losses of over $311 million, the Macau News Agency earlier reported.

Under the termination arrangement, the horse racing firm had pledged to arrange for transportation of owners’ horses to other locations by March 2025, and handle the company’s employees according to the law, the government said.

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In neighboring Hong Kong, horse-racing remains popular and profitable. Its jockey club runs various gambling activities and is the city’s major donor of many charity works.

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Migrant workers who helped build modern China have scant or no pensions, and can’t retire

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Migrant workers who helped build modern China have scant or no pensions, and can’t retire

BEIJING (AP) — At 53, Guan Junling is too old to get hired at factories anymore. But for migrant workers like her, not working is not an option.

For decades, they have come from farming villages to find work in the cities. Toiling in sweatshops and building apartment complexes they could never afford to live in, they played a vital role in China’s transformation into an economic powerhouse.

As they grow older, the first generation of migrant workers is struggling to find jobs in a slowing economy. Many are financially strapped, so they have to keep looking.

“There is no such thing as a ‘retirement’ or ‘pensions’ for rural people. You can only rely on yourself and work,” Guan said. “When can you stop working? It’s really not until you have to lie in bed and you can’t do anything.”

She now relies on housecleaning gigs, working long days to squirrel away a little money in case of a health emergency. Migrant workers can get subsidized health care in their hometowns, but they have little or no coverage elsewhere. If Guan needs to go to hospital in Beijing, she has to pay out of pocket.

As China’s population ages, so are its migrant workers. About 85 million were over 50 in 2022, the latest year for which data is available, accounting for 29% of all migrant workers and up from 15% a decade earlier. With limited or no pensions and health insurance, they need to keep working.

About 75% said they would work beyond the age of 60 in a questionnaire distributed to 2,500 first-generation migrant workers between 2018 to 2022, according to Qiu Fengxian, a scholar on rural sociology who described her research in a talk last year. The first-generation refers to those born in the 1970s or earlier.

Older workers are being hit by a double whammy. Jobs have dried up in construction due to a downturn in the real estate market and in factories because of automation and the slowing economy. Age discrimination is common, so jobs tend to go to younger people.

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“For young people, of course, you can still find a job, positions are available, though the wage is not high enough,” said Zhang Chenggang of Beijing’s Capital University of Economics and Business, where he directs a center researching new forms of employment.

“But for older migrant workers, there simply are no positions,” said Zhang, who conducted field studies at four labor markets across China late last year. “Now, the problem is that no matter how low the wage is, as long as someone pays, you will take the job.”

Some job recruiters contacted by AP said older workers don’t work well or have underlying illnesses. Others declined to answer and hung up.

Many are turning to temporary work. Zhang Zixing was looking for gigs on a cold winter day late last year at a sprawling outdoor labor market on the outskirts of Beijing.

He said he was fired from a job delivering packages because of his age about three years ago, when he reached 55. In December, he was earning 260 yuan (about $35) a day installing cables at construction sites.

Zhang Quanshou, a village official in Henan province and a delegate to China’s National People’s Congress, said some older migrant workers are just looking for work near their hometowns, while others still head to larger cities.

“Some older migrant workers are finding temporary jobs, so it is important to build the temporary job market and provide a better platform for such services,” Zhang, the Communist Party secretary of the village, said in an emailed response to questions during a recent annual meeting of the Congress.

Guan, who comes from a rice-farming region in the north, worked on a clothing factory assembly line until she was laid off when she was in her 40s. She then worked various jobs in different cities, winding up in Beijing in 2018.

She works seven days a week, partly because she’s afraid labor agencies won’t call again if she turns an offer down.

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Over February’s Lunar New Year holiday, when migrant workers traditionally go home to visit their families, she stayed in Beijing as a caretaker for an elderly woman, because the woman needed help and she needed the money.

“People either want someone who’s educated or young, and I don’t meet either of those requirements,” said Guan, who dropped out after middle school because her parents had only enough money to educate their son. “But then I think, regardless of how other people look at me, I have to survive.”

Guan worries jobs will be even harder to find when she reaches 55. The retirement age for women in China is 50 or 55, depending on the company and type of work. For men, it is 60.

Lu Guoquan, a trade union official, has proposed relaxing age limits for jobs, judging workers by their physical condition instead of their age and making it easier for older people to find work through labor markets and online platforms.

“A large number of farmers have entered cities, making an important contribution to the modernization of our country,” said his proposal, made to an advisory body during the recent national congress and seen by the AP.

As workers grow older, “they are gradually becoming a relatively vulnerable group in the labor market and face a number of thresholds and problems in continuing to work,” it said.

Lu, director of the general office of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions, declined an interview request.

Duan Shuangzhu has spent 25 years collecting trash in one Beijing neighborhood after giving up a life of raising sheep and cows in north China’s Shanxi province when he was in his 40s. He gets up at 3:30 a.m. seven days a week to make his rounds. For that, he earns 3,300 yuan ($460) a month and has a basement room to live in.

Duan’s wife stayed on the farm, where she looks after their grandchildren. Duan has managed to save money for himself, his children and his grandchildren, but never paid into a pension system, directing what little he earns to his family.

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That fits the pattern Qiu found in her research, which she published in a book last year. Older migrant workers moved to the cities to improve the lives of their children and other relatives, not themselves, she found. Most have limited or no savings, and few have climbed the economic ladder. They hoped their children would, but most ended up as migrant workers, too.

Most migrant workers’ earnings were spent on their children’s marriages, homes and education, Qiu said in her talk. “Basically, they did not begin working for themselves and planning for their own late years until the age of 55.”

Duan, at 68, has no plans to quit.

“As long as I can work every day, it’s enough to survive,” he said, standing next to a set of community rubbish bins, color-coded for recycling. “I didn’t grow up in a wealthy family — just filling my stomach each day is enough for me.”

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Associated Press researcher Wanqing Chen contributed to this story.

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